Washington Huskies +1 1.1% Free Play
Washington looks to spoil Washington State’s chance at getting to the PAC 12 Title game, which they could get to if they win here, and Oregon loses to Oregon State. Washington is off a misleading loss last week at Colorado where they doubled them in yardage, but had 4 turnovers. With bowl eligibility no longer a factor I look for this team to still be motivated in the Apple Cup. Also it appears the highly touted QB Sam Huard will get the start, and I expect he will take better care of the ball than Morris did and he should be helped a bit by a running game that has strugged as they face the 119th ranked epa run defense.
Washington has owned this series, and they have some match up advantages. For starters the weakness of Washington’s defense is the run defense ranking 101st in ypc allowed. They allow 3.78 in their wins, but 5.11 ypc in their losses. The only teams that have been able to run on Washington however are top rushing attacks like Oregon, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Michigan. Washington State ranks 122nd in epa offense, and they throw the ball 55% of the time. Washington has the #3 QB rating defense, and rank 2nd in percentage of opponent possessions ending in turnovers, while Washington ranks 93rd in percentage of possessions ending in TO. Washington State’s passing offense also is not elite ranking 72nd in epa pass offense, and has been far worse on the road where they are averaging -1.2 yards/attempt, and have 8 passing TDs and 8 INT’s. At home they have a 16/5 ratio. They really need to be able to pass to win games, and I don’t see them being able to do so here tonight.
Washington’s defense is really good on third down, and are holding opponents to 48% TD percentage in the red zone, while Washington State 44% TD percentage on the road. This is a plug your nose type of bet, but with the public hammering Washington State, this is the right side for this rivalry game. Washington has more upside on their offense, and has the better defense, and they are at home. Motivation *might* be on Washington State side, but again I would argue this is the Huskies bowl game, and it is a rivalry game.
